According to The Kobeissi Letter, recession odds in the US have become the base case scenario as indicated by a sharp increase in the 1-year recession probability priced by the S&P 500 earnings yield and the BBB-rated corporate bond spread (source: @KobeissiLetter, April 30, 2025). For traders, this signals heightened market volatility and potential downward pressure on both traditional equities and correlated crypto assets. Monitoring the S&P 500 earnings yield and corporate bond spreads can provide actionable signals for risk management and sector rotation strategies as an economic slowdown materializes.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the US CapEx intentions indicator fell to -1.5 points in April, marking its lowest level since 2020, as reported by BCA Research. This indicator, which draws on CapEx expectations from the NFIB small business survey and various Fed regional surveys, signals a notable slowdown in business investment. Historically, such a sharp decline has preceded periods of reduced economic activity, often leading to increased market volatility and risk-off sentiment in both equity and crypto markets (source: The Kobeissi Letter, April 29, 2025). Traders should monitor potential impacts on S&P 500 futures and major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, as lower CapEx could influence liquidity and risk tolerance across risk assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US consumer sentiment has plummeted to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis, dropping approximately 20 points to 57 over the last month. This decline is significant as it reflects heightened pessimism typically associated with economic crises or recessions, indicating that an economic slowdown is underway.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, US consumer sentiment has drastically declined, reaching levels not seen since 2008. The sentiment index has dropped approximately 20 points over the past month to a value of 57, signaling growing pessimism among US consumers. This decrease is typically observed during a crisis or recession, suggesting an economic slowdown has commenced. Traders should consider the potential impacts of declining consumer confidence on the markets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index dropped 5.6 points in March to 12.5, marking its second consecutive monthly decline. The 6-month outlook for new orders fell by 30.8 points to 2.3, the lowest in three years and representing the third-largest drop in history, surpassed only by 2008. This significant decline may influence trading strategies, as it signals potential economic slowdown.

According to Edward Dowd, the 10-year and 30-year treasury yields have been decreasing since mid-January, anticipating an economic slowdown. The current scenario is described as a 'sell the news' event for bond prices, with expectations of yields continuing to decline throughout the year as economic activity slows down.

According to Omkar Godbole, the downturn in $NDX is negatively impacting $BTC. The current market conditions are not favorable, as lower bond yields are not expected to provide support due to anticipated lower growth and the unraveling of the U.S. exceptionalism narrative. This situation suggests a challenging environment for Bitcoin traders as they navigate these broader economic factors. Source: Twitter (@godbole17).